Lakers: Long Live the 2007 Plan



Some time has passed since Kobe Bryant took to the newspapers, radio waves and internet to generally confuse the NBA world.

Did the star of the Los Angeles Lakers demand a trade? Did he recant?

What led up to one of the wildest weeks in Los Angeles Lakers' offseason history?

Quick History Lesson
The seeds of this crisis date back to the period of time following the Shaquille O'Neal trade.

Certainly there were mistakes made well before then, but let's not dwell on the stretch before Kobe Bryant re-signed with the team in 2004.

In looking to reload, the Los Angeles Lakers birthed the "2007 Plan" which primarily focused on hoarding cap space once Brian Grant's contract expired upon the conclusion of the 2006/7 Season.

The Los Angeles Lakers passed up on numerous free agents and potential trades to protect that cap space with hopes of signing LeBron James, Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire or at worst Chris Bosh.

Unfortunately all four took contract extensions.

Kobe Bryant complained that the Los Angeles Lakers failed to land available players like Carlos Boozer, Baron Davis and Ron Artest. Those names are very familiar to long-time HOOPSWORLD.com readers, but the Los Angeles Lakers simply let available opportunities pass them by time and time again to preserve their plan.

Perhaps the biggest error the team made was trading Caron Butler for a big man. Butler was eligible for an extension before 2007 . . . which meant he simply had to go. The Los Angeles Lakers would swap the eventual All-Star for Kwame Brown who originally had only two of his three contract years guaranteed.

Though their primary free agent targets were gone, cap space would have given the Los Angeles Lakers a shot at Chauncey Billups, Rashard Lewis or Gerald Wallace this summer.

Then suddenly the Los Angeles Lakers guaranteed the third year of Brown's contract. They extended Brian Cook. They signed Vladimir Radmanovic to a long term deal at the mid-level exception (MLE).

The ill-advised 2007 plan was dead.

Kobe's Tirade
He probably shouldn't have hired a publicist to convey his message. It was akin to the way Kobe Bryant plays basketball. If he loses trust in those around him he takes over to the ultimate degree (sometimes to ill effect).

While a disgruntled player might mention something to his local beat reporter (call that a 25-point game) - Kobe Bryant goes on every station, talks to every reporter and presents his side first hand on his own site (81-point time).

From an ownership standpoint, Kobe Bryant's public show of disrespect would probably mean a ticket out under normal circumstances. It's almost hard to imagine a scenario where Vice President of Player Personal Jim Buss could feel comfortable after the public lashing Kobe Bryant gave him (and Kupchak).

Kobe Bryant may not have named Jim specifically, but the younger Buss has been the team's chief decision maker along with his father, owner Jerry Buss for some time now.

How much Kobe Bryant's hammer has damaged the Los Angeles Lakers' negotiating leverage has yet to be seen.

On the other hand, most of what Kobe Bryant said was dead on.

Whether Kobe Bryant knew of the 2007 plan or not . . . he looked around after getting bounced from the playoffs by the Phoenix Suns and said times up.

The Los Angeles Lakers were supposed to be an estate by now, not a tear-me-down.

Poor decisions. A fundamentally bad plan. A thin roster with minimal margin for error . . .

Kobe Bryant has since met with Jerry Buss but came away unimpressed.

There is only one way the Los Angeles Lakers can appease Kobe Bryant . . . immediate and bold action to improve the roster.

The 2007 Plan Lives
From the ashes of a misguided, defunct plan to create cap space, the 2007 Plan has been reborn.

They have one summer . . . this summer . . . to convince both Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson that the Los Angeles Lakers can quickly become a viable contender.

While Kobe Bryant has already demanded a trade, Jackson is going into the final year of his contract.

Will Jackson extend to coach a team without Kobe Bryant? Can the Los Angeles Lakers get fair return if they do decide to move their superstar?

Can they achieve roster balance in a single summer after years of mismanagement?

Kobe Bryant has a 2009 opt out. He may never get his trade but if there isn't immediate improvement, rest assured Kobe Bryant won't stick around.

It may cost the Los Angeles Lakers everything they've been building for the future . . . but the 2007 Plan lives or dies for the here and now.

Trading Kobe Bryant
It's hard to imagine Staples Center selling out nightly if Kobe Bryant were gone.

Laker fans will eventually pay for a winner even without him, but short term the prospects would be difficult financially for the team.

If the front office feels that a Kobe Bryant sacrifice would better restock the team then emptying the shelves now of all the pieces for the future, the unthinkable could happen.

Even if Laker ownership simply can't get past Kobe Bryant's onslaught, the truth is they probably can't trade him even if they wanted to.

Kobe Bryant owns both a no-trade clause and a 15% trade kicker. There is no deal the Los Angeles Lakers can execute without his stamp of approval.

Maybe he gives the Los Angeles Lakers a short list. Maybe LA can produce a bidding war that results in major talent in return.

Perhaps one of the top two picks along with All-Star level talent? How many teams would give up two or three of their best players?

But what if Kobe Bryant is as singular in is focus as he is as a basketball player? What if that short list only includes the Chicago Bulls?

Technically, Kobe Bryant would gain a $9,568,125 trade bonus if LA did decide to move him (he doesn't get kicker money on option years). The incoming team would be on hook for that chunk of change immediately.

For fantasy GM's trying to work the numbers, if Kobe Bryant is traded before July 1, the Los Angeles Lakers would be credited for sending out $17,718,750 but the incoming team would be receiving $20,908,125 in salary after the bonus is spread out over three seasons (including the already paid 2006/7 year).

If Kobe Bryant is traded after June, the outgoing salary for LA would be $19,490,625 and the incoming team would receive $24,274,688.

Not only does the no-trade clause give Kobe Bryant leverage, but he can decide to waive some of his trade bonus if needed to make a deal.

It keeps coming back to Kobe Bryant and his discretion. If he doesn't like a specific deal . . . if it's leaving his new team too bare . . . he can simply say "no."

That's why the Los Angeles Lakers need to keep him at least a year because Kobe Bryant can make sure they don't receive equal value in return.

It's not that it would be done out of spite, but Kobe Bryant is going to want to play for a loaded team with a chance to win a championship.

(Thanks to Larry Coon for clarifying the trade bonus numbers).

What Now?
The 2007 Plan probably means waiting for Andrew Bynum to develop is over. If second-year player Jordan Farmar needs to be sacrificed, that may be the price to pay. The Los Angeles Lakers' 19th pick in the upcoming draft? Readily available.

Jermaine O'Neal appears to be the primary target.

The recent leak that the Los Angeles Lakers are trying to acquire Marcus Camby is partially true. Though the Nuggets may be attraced to pieces like the 19th pick, Jordan Farmar, Luke Walton, Sasha Vujacic and Brian Cook . . . they're not going to give up the defensive player of the year for Kwame Brown. For Walton to be sent to Denver, it'd have to be his decision come July (via sign and trade).

The rumor is more about pressuring the Indiana Pacers and coming up with a backup plan than it is landing Camby any time soon.

Perhaps a multi-team trade can be fashioned but those are complicated and teams in general are looking out for their own self-interest . . . not worried about helping the Los Angeles Lakers keep their star.

Despite the common knocks in the media that the Los Angeles Lakers have nothing to offer, they do have some very movable parts to make the 2007 Plan work. Lamar Odom, Ronny Turiaf, Walton, Cook,Vujacic, Andrew Bynum, Jordan Farmar, the 19th pick and the expiring deal of Brown hold various levels of attraction to teams around the league.

Walton is likely to explore the free agent market, looking for the best deal. If that coincides with a workable trade for the Los Angeles Lakers then so be it . . . but there's a solid shot he re-signs. The soonest a sign and trade can be executed is July 11.

The most valuable pieces the Los Angeles Lakers have to offer are Andrew Bynum and Odom. To give both up for O'Neal would be overpaying. Though the Pacer All-Star is a solid player, he's not enough to propel the Los Angeles Lakers to a ring.

Unless LA has serious contingency plans to fill out the rest of the roster . . . they'd probably end up a two star team without the necessary role players to seriously compete.

Then again, if they don't make a deal there's the potential Kobe Bryant and Jackson time bomb hanging over their heads.

Indiana doesn't hold all the cards. They're clearly rebuilding but with O'Neal's $64 million contract and very few suitors . . . passing on a Laker deal could put a serious damper on the team's financial flexibility.

If the Los Angeles Lakers can find some other options (perhaps Chauncey Billups who may be less inclined to stay with the Detroit Pistons after their Eastern Conference Finals flame-out), the Pacers may be more willing to act.

Unfortunately players like Kevin Garnett and Pau Gasol do not appear to be on the market at this time.

The Bottom Line
The Los Angeles Lakers are on the clock. If they can lay the groundwork for the summer before Phil Jackson goes into surgery to replace his second hip (~ June 13), they'll have a clear plan going into the draft and free agency in July.

Of course Laker management has not been impressive over the years. What reason is there to think their spate of bad decisions has come to an end?

The original 2007 Plan was a bust and Laker management doesn't have a signature acquisition to brag about since Jerry West left town.

Why should this summer be any different?

Perhaps necessity brings out the best in the Buss family and Kupchak.

Maybe the 2007 Plan never died and a roster shake up this summer was inevitable.

Perhaps Kobe Bryant's campaign hindered the process more than anything else.

In the end he may get the credit for shaking the Los Angeles Lakers out of the organizational malaise of the last half decade.

Or he may be the bad guy who forced a trade to the Chicago Bulls.

Make no mistake; this is a crucial summer for the Los Angeles Lakers.

It's not too late for Jim Buss or Mitch Kupchak to make their reputations . . . for better or for worse.

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