Where the money is: NCAA Final Four early action report


No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 2 Georgetown Hoyas

Opening Line: Books were all over the place at the open with this line. Some had the game as a pick, while others slightly favored OSU or Georgetown by a point. The total opened as low as 128 ½.

Shortly after the Georgetown Hoyas’ overtime win against North Carolina on Sunday night, oddsmakers gathered to discuss possible pointspreads for this weekend’s Final Four game between the Hoyas and the winners of the South Bracket, the Ohio State Buckeyes.

“We had one guy at a pick and the rest of us were throwing out Georgetown -1,” says Peter Korner, a lines consultant with the Sport Club. “We thought that the Hoyas played so well in the tournament and plays such great team ball.”

Linesmakers also considered the high-profile matchup between Georgetown center Roy Hibbert and Ohio State’s freshman center Greg Oden. Oden hasn’t faced many opponents who can match his size but Oden has struggled with early foul trouble in games in which he's up against a legitimate post presence. If he suffers a similar fate against Hibbert, Ohio State becomes very small, very quick.

As for the total, oddsmakers expected these two defensive-minded squads to play at a slower pace with both clubs moving the basketball in and back out of the post.

“We set the total around 128, we all liked a lower total,” says Korner. “These guys will have a lot of energy to play defense after having a week off in between games.”

Early line moves: Most sportsbooks that had this game as a pick have seen the line move to -1 in favor of Georgetown while others that had Ohio State as a slight favorite have adjusted the number about half a point.

The majority of the early money is coming in on the Hoyas but oddsmakers and books agree that they won’t stray too far from their opening lines. Shane Catford, a bookmaker for betCRIS.com, says after a rush of money on Georgetown the action has now started to balance out with the Hoyas set as 1-point favorites.

“We’ve seen sharp money on both sides, but the public is a little more on Georgetown,” Catford says of the Hoyas victory. “It’s like anything, the more it’s on TV the more people take notice. The way [the Hoyas] won and kept the Tar Heels nearly scoreless in overtime makes an impression.”

The total for Saturday’s game has moved from its opening spot of 128 ½ to 130. Catford says that most of the money they’ve taken in has been on the over, forcing them to move from a low opening number.

No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 2 UCLA Bruins

Opening line: Sportsbook all agreed on the opening line of -3 ½ in favor of the defending national champion Florida Gators. The total for Saturday’s game opened at 130.

Linesmakers took a hard look at Florida’s current play when preparing the opening line for Saturday’s Final Four showdown and worried about how Florida has played down to the level of its competition.

“We got numbers as low a Florida -1 ½ and as big as -3 and settled on -2 ½,” says Korner. “My only question was if a -2 ½ opening line would be high enough. But Florida hasn't had that run they did last year. They have fallen behind to teams.”

The oddsmakers also looked back at last year’s national championship game in which the Gators punished UCLA 73-57 as 1-point favorites with pretty much the same team they have this season. The Bruins have lost members of that team but are playing with experience and a shut-down defense that held Kansas’ high-powered offense in the regional final.

“I wouldn't be surprised if UCLA can pull this off,” says Korner. “Florida plays with a certain calm and can turn it on in the last minute, but if team like UCLA can get out to a lead and hold it, Florida could have a tough time getting back into the game.”

When setting the total, linesmakers expected these veteran teams to play a patient game on both offense and defense. UCLA has held its last four opponents to 55 or fewer points and played under in each of those games. The Gators ran with Oregon’s offense and slowed down for Butler and Purdue, showing their versatility.

Early line movement: There has been little movement on Sunday’s spread with some sportsbooks dropping it from -3 ½ to -3 as of Monday morning. The total has remained steady as well, with no move more than a half a point.

Early money from sharp bettors seems to be coming in on UCLA, however the public support of the Gators has kept this line bouncing back and forth around its opening mark.

“The smart action is on UCLA right now,” says Catford. “We opened it at -3 and went -4 then back to -3."

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